As the Mueller probe approaches its one-year anniversary and the Office of the Special Counsel (OSC) negotiates with the White House legal team about the terms of a potential interview with President Trump, a review of history reveals that in the end, the Mueller witch-hunt will go down in history as a huge win for Republicans.
Americans generally despise witch hunts. It might be our shared roots of colonial puritanism, where the expression first began in Salem, or perhaps our shared fear of IRS Audits that gives us this negative instinct when it comes to big government, but whatever the case, the data is clear. As of 2013, a Gallop study found that 60% of Americans think that the IRS abuses its power. The majority of Republican voters (58%) think that the FBI is biased against Trump, according to a Quinnipiac poll conducted last week following the release of Rep. Devin Nunes (R-CA)’s memo detailing abuses of power by senior FBI and Justice Department officials before and after the 2016 election.
Democrats are all in on the Russia narrative, which presents them with a precarious political risk-reward. In the Democrat’s dream-come-true scenario, Robert Mueller presents congress with evidence that the Trump Campaign colluded with the Kremlin to hack the DNC and throw the election while simultaneously announcing indictments against the President himself. This effort would likely fail, as Republicans hold a steadfast and secure majority in the House and the Senate and most constitutional scholars agree that the President cannot be indicted by a Special Counsel, or anyone else for that matter.
In the Democrats’ most realistic nightmare scenario, Robert Mueller holds a public press conference where he exaunerates the President of any wrongdoing and only confirms the small amount of Russian interference in the election that congressional investigators have already uncovered themselves. (Hint: $100K of Russian Facebook ads isn’t going to make a splash).
At this point in the investigation, it seems that Democrats will pay dearly for their decision to go all-in on the Russia narrative as a political talking point, history be damned. Just in the way that voters made Republicans pay for their failed impeachment of Bill Clinton.
Democrats had better hope that Robert Mueller takes his sweet time. If he doesn’t, the “Blue Wave” will turn out to be the “Blue Boodbath” in the mid-terms this year.